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tells a global recession with the Chinese buying fewer washers and dryers and JDS Uniphase shareholders delaying that Mercedes purchase. As a result, major mining companies will be making far less money on their great mines and losing it on their marginal ones. The owners of one of the costliest mines to be put into production recently, Antimina in Peru, are not experiencing a particularly good first year, with zinc and copper at record low prices. More layoffs and budget cuts are inevitable throughout the industry.

Despite the dreadful near term outlook for the mining industry, mineral production and reserve depletion continues at a fairly rapid pace. A study by Chris Bain into the past 50 years of minerals exploration and discovery points out that at current rates of production the industry's annual discovery requirements are roughly:

· Gold: Fifteen 5 million oz deposits assuming a $25/oz discovery cost, $50/oz development cost and sustainable production costs of under $150/oz.

· Copper: Two high-grade, world class porphyry deposits containing 5 million tonnes of recoverable copper each equating to about 500 million tonnes @ 1.3% Cu located near favorable infrastructure.

· Silver: Ten deposits containing 60 million oz each.

· Diamonds: Six deposits containing 20 million cts.

I've been watching, and even assuming this year's two promising large copper discoveries by Metallica/Noranda at La Fortuna (400 million tonnes @ 0.61% Cu, 0.56g/t Au resource), and Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgio property in Mongolia prove economic, we're falling behind. Chris backs up this observation by noting that base metal discoveries peaked in the 60s and 70s and gold discoveries in the late 80s to early 90s. This decreasing discovery success rate has occurred despite (until recently) increasing exploration expenditures over the 50-year period.

Why does it appear to be getting tougher to make grassroots discoveries?

The 50 year study points out that economic hurdles are becoming higher and higher due to steadily increasing real operating and capital costs and declining real metal prices plus, the sheer size of the deposits needed to replace production. Add to this the exploration maturity of most favorable geologic terrains with fewer explorers looking and the answer becomes obvious. Exacerbating this "problem," I

pensive ($50 million) battle over the use of cyanide in 1997. The million ounce deposit is in production and showing positive cash flow, but will never earn out at present gold prices due to the extra cost and delays. It just goes to show that you can't get away from these problems anywhere today. But there are far less of them in Turkey than most places, since it's still relatively low on the development curve. At the same time, it's developed enough, and with a large enough middle class that the problems of working in, say, Africa are avoided. And, not that the EU is a good thing, but the fact the Turks want to join it means the country will likely keep advancing apace.

Eldorado and Anatolia are certainly the two most significant explorers here. I think the shares of both are a buy. n

Thoughts on Exploration, Economics and a Looming Metals Shortage

Over the last year or so I've enlisted my friend Brent Cook, from time to time, to say a few words on the mining business; he's been an active field geologist for over 25 years. We've been to numerous projects together all over the world and there's not much we disagree about besides what wine to order with dinner. The bottom line here is that, as bad as the mining business has been, that has to change. According to Brent, here's part of why it's such a notoriously cyclical business. And part of why I think we're looking at what will, I believe, go down as the biggest bull market in recent memory.

"First, let's appraise the good and bad of the archaic mining industry today. Metal prices are appalling and unlikely to improve near term, given that the macro-economic crystal ball fore

The bottom line here is that, as bad as the mining business has been, that has to change.

[H]ere's part of why it's such a notoriously cyclical business. And part of why I think we're looking at what will, I believe, go down as the biggest bull market in recent memory.

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see the lack of determination and steady funding of exploration as detrimental to this already difficult scientific endeavor. Very little money is (or has been) available from the industry or equity markets recently, meaning new projects and ideas are becoming fewer and farther between just as deposits are becoming harder to find. Even flow-through funds in Canada are going begging, as there are so few "respectable" drill ready projects available. In Latin America the funding situation is worse, and if you're looking in Africa or the 'whereverthefuqistans,' well you're on the wrong side of the tracks.

On the business side, the accountants and bankers running the mining companies have justly concluded that in-house exploration is a money-losing proposition. Replacing production through acquisitions and expansions provides a much more quantifiable resolution than the uncertainties of paying a pack of degenerate geologists to run around in politically questionable environments. Fortunately, the apparent deficit in discoveries has, for the most part, been made up by "brownfield" discoveries at existing operations that were discovered by an older pack of degenerates. [As an aside, many of the mines currently in production would not be economic if discovered today.] However, there are geologic limits to how much ore these giant deposits can give, and we will ultimately see these limits reached. Looking forward, how many more Escondida copper deposits are still out there? One? Ten? Fifty? First Quantum (FM.T) has apparently done the math and is sitting tight in Zambia with an expectant and hopeful eye on the Congo.

Going back to Chris's study, he concludes that sooner or later, the scarcity in discoveries will become a force acting on real metal prices and that at that point, the trend in real price declines will reverse. This should then create a more favorable environment for investment in exploration. But there's a big problem here. It is the few giant ore deposits that are the foundation of the major mining companies, and these deposits are geologically unique beasts. Discovery is uncertain and difficult while development can take decades.

No doubt, dear reader, you appreciate and sympathize with the dilemma your favorite mining company executives will be facing in the future: Rising metal prices, declining mine lives, increasing production profiles, no new giant ore deposits or potential discoveries and ample evidence that your pack of degenerates

has been wholly unsuccessful at anything but spending money. So how and where do the CEOs find the next giant ore deposit? More specifically, how do they find this given the rising economic threshold for mining operations, the increasing exploration maturity of the favored terrains, the escalating exploration costs and discovery risks due to the more "esoteric" techniques required to detect hidden mineralization and they've canned almost everyone capable of finding anything anyway?

The answer, I believe, has to be the junior exploration company. The question now becomes: How do we speculators and explorers best position ourselves to be in the way of the inevitable (but not necessarily imminent) big bucks from the next exploration BOOM?

The blatantly obvious and simple solution is to only explore properties that contain giant ore bodies and only invest in companies that are going to discover these big ore bodies.

During the last minerals exploration speculative boom (1994-1997) it seemed that easy. The following companies were sporting market capitalization's in the C$100s of millions and considered almost certain to make a discovery: General Minerals (C$15.20, currently C$0.08), Southwestern Gold (C$26.00, currently C$2.50), Yamana (C$6.30, currently C$0.12) and, Corriente (C$18.70, currently C$0.90).

Obviously it wasn't that easy. The boom went bust and today we are faced with extremely low metal prices despite the clear indications that the mining industry will become increasingly desperate for new discoveries.

Common sense dictates we recognize there's a lot more moose pasture than ore out there. The minerals exploration business is fraught with environmental, political, cultural, technological and financial uncertainties. Admittedly, large discoveries, when made, are extremely profitable to the discoveree but the odds, costs and risks are exceptionally unfavorable. Any exploration business plan should acknowledge these facts.

For the few of us left in minerals exploration and speculation there are

The answer, I believe, has to be the junior exploration company. The question now becomes: How do we speculators and explorers best position ourselves to be in the way of the inevitable (but not necessarily imminent) big bucks from the next exploration BOOM?

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two basic paths to riches being followed by the junior exploration company. Either 1) funding is provided through equity dilution and it's an all or nothing game for shareholders or, 2) funding is provided through joint ventures and dilution occurs at the property level.

I have no problem with the first approach to exploration and speculation, provided you recognize the odds. However, until metal prices rise and the money is easy, I prefer the odds of diluting my interest in the prospect and maintaining my interest in the intelligent explorationist's ability to turn up more mineral prospects. Meaning, although I do get diluted out of a piece of what statistically will probably end up as moose pasture, my stake ($) in the guys that I think are most likely to eventually find something goes as far as possible. Statistically, if I've gotfour shots at a 30% interest in a major discovery, I'm ahead. I personally would not dilute in a property I thought had a very high chance of becoming a mine, it's just that they hardly ever come around."

Brent is quite correct. And that coincidentally, serves as a good intro to Eldorado and Anatolia, for reasons that I'll make apparent. n

Eldorado

Eldorado Gold (ELD.T, C$0.65) was formed in 1993 by some of the same guys who started Bema Gold. They acquired properties in Mexico and Brazil, and quickly placed them in successful production. They sold the La Colorada operation in Mexico two years ago, partly because it was small, partly because reserves were coming to an end, partly to gain cash to retire debt and partly to focus on bigger prospects. At the moment they own the Sao Bento mine in Brazil, plus some interesting exploration prospects there. And, of course, their prospects in Turkey, which are where the action really is, the way I see it.

ELD's philosophy is to grow into a mid-tier producer. My reaction to that desire in small mining companies is almost always negative. The reasons

are simple, and I've detailed them here many times: mining is a sunset business, it's both capital and labor intensive, commodity price sensitive, technically difficult and risky, a political/environmental hot potato and last but not least, only a fraction of the companies doing it ever make money. Who needs all that aggravation when, in a resource bull market (as rare as they admittedly are), it's possible to poke a major in the eye with a property, for a lot of money, and avoid all the aggravation?

Entirely apart from that, the fact a group are good explorationists doesn't mean they're good managers. Worse, the cash flow from a mine may be viewed as a sinecure to pay fat salaries and never accrue to the benefit of shareholders.

On the other hand, the market (here I speak of the unwashed, who cyclically buy mining stocks for the same reasons they bought Internets, and with about as much understanding of the underlying business) likes operating companies. They think "mining" companies are supposed to mine. And of course, when commodity prices are running, earnings go up-radically-and that does get people excited. Anyway, those are the caveats. The good news is that Eldorado has shown the competence to not only explore but mine.

Balance Sheet? Gee, I Never
Thought About That.

This might be a good segue to lead into ELD's balance sheet which, it must be said, is typical of small operators.

As of Sep 2001, ELD showed US$113 million in assets, and about 100,000 ounces of production, which looked pretty good with roughly 100 million shares out, trading at about C$0.30 at the time. That's the part that made the stock look interesting. Unfortunately, they also had $14 million in current liabilities, $37 million in debt, and only $8 million in cash at the time, putting them on the ragged edge. That's why the Quarterly included the statement "management believes the company has adequate cash flow to meet its normal operating expenditures and debt repayment for the remainder of 2001," which is encouraging except when one considers that was only 90 days in the future.

The problem wasn't that their Sao Bento mine wasn't generating cash flow. The problem was the debt they incurred to put it into

The good news is that Eldorado has shown the competence to not only explore but mine.

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production, with $40 million owing as late as 1997, and that debt carries interest. It's to their credit that, in the act of staving off bankruptcy, they've since reduced it to $5.4 million, while taking the cash up to $10 million. But, in the absence of earnings, the only way to do it was by selling new shares, and the outstanding has gone from 76 million in 2000 to 162 million (plus another 26 million in-the-money warrants) today.

ELD traded as high as C$10 a share in 1996. It went as low as C$0.22 last year. It almost went belly-up. The indirect reason was a weak gold price; the direct reason was a load of debt.

Right now, based upon their last financing (which I would have joined if I'd been asked, a fact which annoys me, and a bunch of others who didn't like seeing one broker do the whole placement), they're out of the woods. And things should only get better for reasons I'll detail below. But, remember, when they go to build the mines in question, they're going to have to raise debt again. And debt, however necessary, is a potential death sentence for any company in the mining business. But none of these stocks are heirlooms. Let that be a problem for the guy you sell to at much higher levels.

The Turkish Properties

OK, now that we've dispensed with the sad financial realities, let's look at the Blue Sky, which is what the market will see as gold heats up.

ELD's Sao Bento mine should produce 110,000 ounces a year through at least 2008, at a cash cost of about $195, giving them cash flow of at least US$10 million a year for that long. They plan on having their Kisladag property come on line in 2004, for another 100,000 ounces, the Efencukuru in 2006, for another 140,000 ounces, and then stage two of Efencukuru in 2008 for another 150,000 ounces. Which means they should show about 550,000 ounces of annual production, with a resource base of close to 10 million ounces, within six years. This is interesting in a company with a market cap of only US$70 million.

Kisladag is 100% owned, with 6.7 million ounces of resource defined (1.8 million of which is classed as a reserve), and the deposit is open in several directions. The in-house pre-feasibility study, done in 2001, suggests that Phase 1 would mine the upper

portion of this open-pittable deposit, in effect pre-stripping for the considerable expansion in Phase 2. Their numbers indicate a $30 million capital cost which, I suspect, is reasonable, in view of the easy terrain, mild climate and generally low costs of labor in Turkey. Cash costs are estimated at $135. Kisladag is a true bulk tonnage, long-life deposit, with at least 180 million tonnes of average 1.1 gram material

What can go wrong? That's one thing the upcoming feasibility report, which will cost about $3 million, is supposed to show. From what I can determine, this is about as straightforward as a deposit of this size can be.

Efencukcuru is also 100% owned, but with 1.1 million ounces of resource defined (775,000 of which is classified as a reserve). This is an underground, vein-type deposit and, necessarily, is much higher grade, averaging 14 grams per tonne. Everything being equal, underground operations have considerably higher capital and operating costs per tonne of material moved, they're much more costly to explore, and establishing tonnage and grade involves much more guesswork. The good news is that it doesn't pay to establish reserves too far in advance since, unlike an open-pit mine, it's unlikely to affect the design and rate of production. In the case of Efencukuru, it's reasonable to believe there are at least another million high grade ounces that can be drilled off at deeper levels.

The pre-feasibility study, done in 1998, estimates a $45 million capital cost, and $145 operating costs. This shows an NPV for the property of $21 million at $300 gold and an 8% discount rate, and an Internal Rate of Return of 24%. The property is much more leveraged to the gold price than Kisladag.

Rounding out ELD's portfolio of properties are the Kaymaz (a million tonnes of 6 gram material, for 200,000 ounces), the Cukudere (1.5 million tonnes of 6 gram material, for 300,000 ounces), both in Turkey, and the Piaba in Brazil (11 million tonnes of 1.25 gram material, for 450,000 ounces).

OK, now that we've dispensed with the sad financial realities, let's look at the Blue Sky, which is what the market will see as gold heats up.

All these could grow, and there's room for plenty of exploration success on ELD's land positions.

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All these could grow, and there's room for plenty of exploration success on ELD's land positions.

The Bottom Line

I think the stock is a buy, notwithstanding the caveats I've discussed. I'm not crazy about the huge number of shares. But they've got great properties, good visibility, and demonstrated competence. When gold heats up, this is definitely the kind of stock that will go up. It's traded at C$10 in the past, and that could happen again. n

Anatolia Minerals

Anatolia Minerals (YMC.U.V, C$.44) Turkish subsidiary was organized in early 1996, and has since come to control more than ten major project areas covering 3.5 million acres throughout Turkey. In my view recognizing it's still early days in the exploration/development curve any one of them has the potential to be a company maker. The company's shares have real upside potential, both because of its property portfolio, and its method of financing exploration. Eldorado is a textbook example of one modus operandi (share and debt financing), and Anatolia is an equally good example of the other (JV financing).

The share structure of YMC is much tighter than that of Eldorado, with 27 million shares out, and about 29 million fully diluted. And it's likely to stay that way, in that founder and CEO Dick Moores owns much of the company himself, which tends to align his interests with that of the other shareholders which is a rarity in big companies, and one reason why I have only limited enthusiasm for them. Moores, I've found, is tough about dilution. I participated in a recent private placement done at US$.35, and it was like pulling teeth to get it done, even though, like all explorers, the company needs money. Moores has raised most of his capital by selling over $4 million of stock to partner Rio Tinto at substantial premiums to market (most

recently 1.5 million at C$0.90) and, more importantly, co-venturing properties with them.

As Brent explained earlier, if you run an exploration company there are only two realistic ways to fund it: Dilute the company by selling stock, or dilute the interests in the properties. Moores' deal with Rio Tinto (RTZ) allows them to earn up to 65% of four properties by spending $10 million each, over five years, plus making $1.5 million in payments to YMC at the end of that time. In addition, they're funding a $1.5 million grassroots exploration program giving them first right of refusal on any discoveries on the same terms. Plus, they have a fifth, similar, deal with Cominco.

YMC's properties are all relatively early stage. But in every case, as I walked them and questioned Erdan Yuksel, their chief geologist, over a five day period, I was left with an extremely favorable impression. Nobody can be sure what the actual extent or grade of mineralization is without poking numerous holes in the ground. But, for all the numerous faults large mining companies have, at least in today's environment they're not throwing money around promiscuously on exploration. RTZ, which is the world's largest mining company, is nonetheless committed to spending a lot of money on these properties because they are all potential elephants. All of the properties I visited were located in accessible areas, comfortably close to roads, power, rail and air transport factors which are highly problematical in many parts of the world.

I'm only going to describe a few of them. I suggest you access Anatolia's website for more detail, continuing results, maps and the like.

Cukurdere This porphyry gold-copper prospect, located 500 kilometers east-southeast of Ankara, is the most advanced of Anatolia's properties. It's clearly a very large mineral system. High-resolution satellite imagery shows Cukurdere to be in a discolored/altered area about 4 kilometers in diameter, most of which is still inadequately probed on the ground. Signs of ancient mining activities are everywhere, which is an excellent indicator of both size and grade potential. A total of 2,000 meters of channel sampling taken throughout a 1.6 by 1.0 kilometer area averaged 1.1 grams gold per tonne, 0.10% copper, and some silver.

None of the results so far have been bad,

When gold heats up, this is definitely the kind of stock that will go up. It's traded at C$10 in the past, and that could happen again.

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and some have been spectacular. By not bad, I mean almost all holes (27 reverse circulation and 7 diamond drill holes released so far, with more to be released shortly) have encountered long lengths of material ranging from 1 to 3 grams per tonne, plus copper values, plus silver running from 8 to 30 grams. By spectacular, I mean hole CRC1, which yielded 80 meters of 10.4 grams, from near surface. This hole was twinned, to confirm the results, and the twin broke off in 34 gram material, which is over one ounce. The mineralized zones generally carry $2 - $6 per tonne in associated copper and silver, equivalent to an additional 0.2-0.6 gram gold per tonne. Costs on Cukurdere are all covered under the earn-in with RTZ described above.

It's arm waving at this stage, but Cukurdere is an excellent bet for 2 to 3 million ounces as a minimum, more likely 7 to 8 million, and possibly much more. Of real importance is its exceptional richness, easy location, and location on the surface a high stripping ratio is always a big consideration.

Kabatas Copper/Gold Porphyry Located 15 kilometers southeast of Cukurdere, this copper/gold porphyry prospect is subject to an identical RTZ earn-in. Kabatas centers on an altered, mineralized zone approximately 3 km by 2 km wide. A geochem survey ran values around 0.67% copper and 1 gram gold. Several streamlets on the property turn blue with copper when the rains come, as shocking a thought to environmentalists as it is enticing to explorationists. All this is on top of a very large, very strong I.P. (induced polarity, an electrical measure helpful in determining the presence of ore bodies) anomaly. Five RTZ holes drilled so far ran 0.10% to 0.30% copper with 0.10 to 0.30 gram gold; this is obviously quite subeconomic, but one hole ran 350 meters of 0.33% copper and 0.50 gram gold. The key here is to find a high-grade core, and that's why RTZ has the JV.

Kabatas District The Kabatas District is a 250,000 acre area surrounding the Cukurdere and Kabatas porphyry prospects, and is subject to a separate RTZ earn-in. The JV is exploring a cluster of porphyry copper-gold prospects. Grassroots, but again, RTZ isn't spending over $10 million for 65% out of good will.

Uckapili This 82,000 acre copper/gold prospect lies 350 km SE of Ankara just north of the Taurus Mountains in sparsely

settled pastureland. It's the fourth of Anatolia's prospects having the same RTZ earn-in.

Mineralized outcroppings were visible everywhere on the parts of the property I visited; it's rugged terrain, but not enough to present problems. What was especially noticeable was the vast amount of quartz, which is often a good indicator for high grade gold. The presence of old mine workings, some apparently dating from pre-Roman times, reinforced that impression. In fact, the prospect includes the world's oldest known tin
mine.

The JV first outlined a 40 km by 10 km area containing anomalous gold and gold indicators in stream sediments. Subsequent trenching and channel sampling found more than 20 separate occurrences of visible free gold in outcrops and boulders within a 5-sq-km area, some running over an ounce per ton.

The Armutbeli copper prospect, which is part of this concession, was explored under a previous agreement with Rio Algom, who dropped it early in 2000 due to the massive cost of developing Antamina in Peru. Gossans here were mined for copper by the ancients and for iron by modern Turks. After shipping 50,000 tonnes of gossan running 55% iron to ironworks, the modern mine was shut down due to excessive copper content, which even hand sorting couldn't reduce below 1%. Metallurgy is just one of many considerations in deciding whether a potential mine is viable.

Yahyali This zinc/lead/silver prospect lies about 300 km SE of Ankara. It's in a prolific base metals district, which is why Cominco has JV'd the 100,000 acre property. The JV is quite similar to that with RTZ, just smaller; to earn a 70%interest, Cominco must spend a total of US$6 million at Yahyali and pay US$1 million to Anatolia by January 15, 2008.

This historic base metals district has produced nearly 2 million tonnes of 20-40% zinc ore from near-surface over the past 20 years. These are incredible grades, most being direct-

It's arm waving at this stage, but Cukurdere is an excellent bet for 2 to 3 million ounces as a minimum, more likely 7 to 8 million, and possibly much more.

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shipped to the Kayseri smelter without concentration. Previous exploration here consisted mainly of mining outcrops

Yenipazar This copper/gold/silver/lead/zinc prospect is 220 km east of Ankara in a sparsely settled agricultural area, where Anatolia controls some 160,000 hectares (400,000 acres). Ancient Hittite tumuli (ancient grave mounds) are everywhere in the area; I wish I'd had a chance to examine them, but there just wasn't time to do everything.

Preliminary sampling in 1996 returned assays of up to 5 grams of gold/t, 3 oz. silver/t, 5% copper and 5% zinc plus lead. About one-third of all samples in a 100m by 100m geochem grid were quite anomalous (rock chip highs of 1.62% Cu, 2.62% Zn, 3.87% Pb, 12 gm Au/T). This was followed by an I.P. geophysical survey showing a 700m by 400m anomaly, roughly centered on an ancient pit.

Holes drilled to date have all intersected shallow, ore-grade zones, including one which cut 2 zones, totaling 78m of 2.1 gm Au/T, 41 gm Ag/T and 3.3% Zn+Cu+Pb, including 44m of 3.7 gm Au/T, 70 gm Ag/T and 5.6% Zn+Cu+Pb. In March, 1998, Watts, Griffis, McOuat estimated the potentially open-pittable resource at Yenipazar to contain 11-15 million tonnes of 2.1-3.4% Cu+Pb+Zn, 1-2 grams/T gold and 20-40 grams/T silver. This is roughly $100 ore, quite economic, especially for a surface deposit.

But you don't build a mine based on back of the envelope calculations possible from just a few holes. Work continues.

The Bottom Line

These names of properties in a part of the world that's obscure to most Americans perhaps seem unimportant. But they are important if you're going to speculate in stocks like this. And I'm not even going into some excellent ones that I didn't visit. I don't suppose you subscribe to IS for an overload of academic data.

The way I see it Anatolia offers a

great spread of properties, several clearly with elephant potential. It's not likely to get into financial trouble, it has a low market cap and isn't widely appreciated in the market. It's a stock you should own. I do. n

Speaking Engagements:

Foundation for Economic Education

National Convention & 30th Anniversary

Gala Celebration of Laissez Faire Books

Bally's/Paris Resort, Las Vegas

May 3&endash;5, 2002

888-565-8779

Contact Tami Holland

tholland@fee.org

www.fee.org

Speech topic: "My World View According to

Gibbon, Mencken and Bakunin."

International Society for Individual
Liberty World Conference

Puerta Vallarta, Mexico

July 28&endash;Aug. 1, 2002

836-B Southampton Rd. #299

Benicia, CA 94510

Phone: 707 746-8796

Fax: 707 746-8797

www.isil.org

The Freedom Summit

Phoenix, AZ

Oct. 12&endash;13, 2002

www.freedomsummit.com

The way I see it Anatolia offers a great spread of properties, several clearly with elephant potential.

Doug Casey's International Speculator is published monthly by Douglas Casey. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Publisher, editors and officers, including Douglas Casey may from time to time have positions in securities or commodities recommended by or referred to in this newsletter. No more than 250 words of this newsletter may be extracted or reproduced in context without permission of the publisher. ©2002 by Douglas Casey.

Editor/Publisher: Douglas R. Casey

Please address subscription, customer service and editorial inquiries to: Doug Casey's International Speculator, Box 84911, Phoenix, AZ 85071, 800-528-0559, 602-252-4477. Subscriptions: 12 issues, $199, 24 issues, $299; back issues $25 each. All prices in US dollars unless otherwise noted.