Romanian Opportunities

Why is International Speculator your personal key to financial success in the coming decade?

Formerly known as Crisis Investing, International Speculator is now in its 19th year of publication. Editor Doug Casey has made a career of finding winning speculations. In fact he picks more winners than most supposedly "conservative" stock portfolios and mutual funds but for much higher returns. He's had hundreds of 100% plus hits over the last 20 years and as much as 10,000% just last year. Its' an amazing track record.

And for sure, Doug Casey's viewpoint and his newsletter are distinctive sometimes outrageous, but always clear, dead honest and very canny. No dreaming or dissembling. He spells out all the pros and cons for every pick so his subscribers know where they're headed and why. Here a few of his most recent opinions.

In May 1996, Casey advised getting out of natural resources, particularly mining stocks and precious metals. He saved his readers a lot of grief as the whole mining/precious metals market tumbled disastrously, but now....

"It's time to buy both gold and silver bullion (or coins) in size, and with abandon. It's also time to buy into the junior mining shares. Sure they could lose another 25%, even after the mauling they've had. But the chances are better they'll gain 500% over the next couple of years. I'll take those odds."

Doug Casey bought a penthouse in Hong Kong, a home in Marbella, Spain, and a luxury residence in Aspen every one of them cheaply before they became the "in" spots and prices went sky high. With his nose for real estate, everyone want to know what's next. Here's a surprise....

"My guess is that Albania and the Dalmatian coast off Croatia offer opportunity. Those who think they're a bad idea because they're borderline war zone's are likely the same people who felt that way about Spain in the 60s, Portugal in the 70s, and in fact most places which offer opportunity."

The Baron von Rothschild once advised that the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets. Amid desperation, you can find the greatest bargains. Where's the next chance to do that?

"There is a job for a speculator who, like Paladin [the 1960's television gunman for hire played by Richard Boone] is really something of a humanitarian in disguise, one who sees people in need and offers them a solution. He searches the world for markets where everyone wants to buy and endeavors to provide what they want at the top of a mania. Later, when the market craters, and they all want to sell, he again bows to the wishes of the majority, offering cash for valuables. Soon in Surinam, you'll be able to buy things for 10, 20, or 50 cents on the dollar - and things are pretty cheap here in the best of times...Actually, it's quite a nice little country."

Doug Casey finds a lot of companies you won't read about anywhere else, and almost all of them fall into the speculative category... very speculative. But Casey is as careful about controlling the downside risk as he is in picking companies likely to take off--unlike many other advisers who get their followers in on "momentum" stocks and leave them there to take the fall. He makes money because he knows when to take a profit (for example getting out of Bre-X well before the scandal hit) and when to cut a loss and go on.

"There's no excuse for having more than a 20-25% loss in any stock; if it drops that far, your broker should have standing orders to get you out. Period. If you have a 20% loss, you can make it back very quickly with a 25% gain on the remaining capital--very quickly doable with stocks this volatile. With an 80% loss, however, you need a 500% gain on the remainder--and that's not easy. You have to remember that most resource stocks--despite our best efforts--are burning matches. Most reach a peak and burn out, singeing the fingers of those still holding.

With one or two exceptions, Doug Casey doesn't. In fact, he finds their current popularity a real danger sign....

"When it comes to financial manias, funds are almost inevitably the vehicle that the public takes to carry them to the slaughter house...they know little about finance in general, and much less about individual companies. They want to buy "the market"--and a fund is the only way to do that...Brokers prefer to get small investors into funds. There's no money in commissions from small retail accounts [and] there are far fewer regulatory hassles....Over 48% of NYSE commissions were generated by funds last year, up from 10% in 1980....This has been a tip-off to the top of the market."

Casey keeps up with politics as he looks for potential investments. He has to since his trips sometimes take him to some very scary places. Traveling to Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo after Mobutu's downfall, Casey speculated on the stability of the country--a big "if"--and found a great mining investment opportunity.

"Mobutu is certainly one of the great criminals of the last three decades, having stolen upwards of US$10 billion and having been responsible for the deaths of 10's of thousands of people. I think he should have been hung by his heels from a lamppost many years ago. Of course that's just my opinion. Ronald Reagan viewed Mobutu as "a voice of good sense and good will." But you can't blame the good-natured Reagan, who probably couldn't even locate Zaire on a map. Mobutu has been replaced by Laurent Kabila.

"Passive speculation is not a real option. You have to use it productively...clearly America Mineral Fields hasn't decided to go mining in Kansas. What counts is risk to reward ratio. America Mineral Fields was founded in October 1995 by Jean Boulle. The mention of Boulle should bring a warm feeling to longtime readers, since he is the co-founder of Diamond Fields Resources, a stock which was a solid 50 to one hit for many of you."