1999
XX, No. 12
December,
1999
China: The 21st Century
Powerhouse - Somehow, the perception which lingers in the West is
that China is still "Red China," dominated by aggressive "Chicoms,"
waving their little Red Books, full of hatred for America. The leadership
is depicted as a bunch of Fu Manchu look-a-likes plotting world
conquest. I'm here to tell you that the reality is vastly different
from the perception.
Dragon Pharmaceuticals
- (DRUG) Dragon's basic business is the manufacture of Erythropoietin
(EPO), a protein that stimulates and regulates the production of
red blood cells. They're already the largest EPO producer in China,
and it's also possible to export EPO to South America and other
Asian countries. Right now, Dragon is one of my big bets.
Notes - Other Chinese
stocks, The Sand Pebbles & Outlaws of the Marsh, Telefficiency
and more...
XX, No. 11
November,
1999
Disinvest in the Net
- It's common knowledge that the Internet is in the process of changing
the world in a profound and radical way. It's as big an innovation
as the printing press, the telephone, radio or TV. But what's that
got to do with the public making money? Absolutely nothing. Almost
every one of the Internet stocks is a burning match. Let's look
at a few of the big ones. I'm shorting, buying puts and selling
naked calls on the lot of them.
The Less Friendly and
More Inquisitive Skies - If Heironymus Bosch were alive today, he'd
paint airport scenes. It's a far cry from the days when air hostesses
were all pretty, and flying was a polite adventure. I can't remember
when, although it seems like only a year or so ago, that they started
laying on the last straw: Ritual Interrogation Before Boarding.
The average American (even though he's far better off then the average
European) is such a whipped dog, such a spineless worm, that he'll
graciously accept these indignities simply because he's told to
do so.
Gold - What will set
off the next upmove in gold? It could be a panic in the stock market.
Perhaps a surprise bankruptcy. Maybe a war. It's a safe bet something
will go wrong when most people think we already live in the best
of all possible financial worlds.
Notes - The Farmhouse,
Inland Entertainment and The Barona, One more reason to be a bear,
Everyone Ought To Be Rich and more...
XX, No. 10
October, 1999
Want to Invest in the
Net? - Even though all the hoopla and gigantic market caps and horrendous
losses belong to the eBays and Amazons of the Net, almost all of
the money belongs to companies in the gambling and porn (aka "adult")
industries. I know there will be exceptions that will crop up, but
I can't see the point in being anywhere but these areas, preferably
gambling.
The Markets/Open Positions
- Semi annual market check up and portfolio update.
Notes - Hedging and mining
companies, and more...
XX, No. 9
September, 1999
Gold - I think a new
bull market in gold has started, and not just another cyclical upturn.
It's been a 20-year gold bear market, even though we've had a half-dozen
strong upturns since gold peaked at over $800 in January 1980; each
of them took many volatile gold stocks up from 10 to 50 times in
price.
The Junior Gold Review
- Semi annual review of all junior golds in the portfolio: producing,
developmental, exploration and silver companies.
Jesse On Religion - Jesse
Ventura's recent comment on religion turned my thoughts to the subject.
Entirely apart from my own sentiments on the topic, it was perhaps
impolitic to insult the beliefs of a majority of his supporters.
But his outspokenness deserves respect in a day when politicians
consult the polls before saying a word; and his election didn't
amount to a contract not to voice his opinions.
Notes - The Perth Mint
Certificate program, Bill Gates buys silver, day traders and more...
XX, No. 8
August, 1999
A Gambler's Market -
As far as I'm concerned, the market hasn't lent itself to rational
analysis for years. Or, more correctly, a rational assessment of
what's cheap or dear hasn't been very helpful in figuring out where
it was going. That's because we've been in a bubble for some years,
and no one can predict how big it will get or which way it will
blow.
Do
Telefficiency - TTFC,
which first traded I August 1998, has been as high as $4.75 and
as low as $0.28, and now sells just off its low, down over 90% from
its high. The good news is that $1.8 million was raised at high
levels...
Starnet Redux - Starnet
has certainly been a wild ride. After going from $0.47 to a high
of $28, it's redescended to $5&emdash;which still looks pretty good
if you got in at $0.50.
Notes - George Bush,
John F. Kennedy Jr., NBG Radio, Waco, and more...
XX, No. 7
July, 1999
A Few Thoughts on the
Continuing Mania - The cover stories of magazines are all stock
market oriented, large numbers of people are apparently willing
to wait weeks for reservations at snooty, overpriced restaurants,
and lots of special edition production cars are going for 10-20%
premiums over their sticker prices. Thinks like that only happen
when lots of people have come into lots of easy money. Anecdotal
signs of the top are everywhere in the press.
Gasp! A Dot-Com and a
Biotech to Buy - Stockscape.com makes money by hosting websites
for approximately 50 public companies. Dragon Pharmaceuticals is
a biotech company operating in China.
Some Tail on This Dog
- On August 20, 1998, Clinton used cruise missiles to destroy an
aspirin factory in Sudan, alleging it was a biological warfare facility.
This came only three days after his deposition in the Monica affair
and in the midst of considerable media speculation on the matter.
Do You Want to Play a
Game? - That, you may recall, was what the NORAD computer in the
movie War Games said to the young hacker when he tapped into it.
This leads me to the idea for a contest. Take a look at a map, and
decide which of the world's roughly 200 countries will be the next
recipient of the gentle mercies of some arm of the US military.
Pusher Parents Redux
- I want to thank everyone who commented on the "Parents As Pushers"
article in last month's letter. You've probably seen the news clippings.
In Michigan, one school system has banned book bags, lunchboxes
and even long overcoats from school premises for fear they might
be used to conceal weapons. The whole thing has actually reached
the level of clinical insanity.
Notes - Talk Radio, music,
Japan, Dayton Mining, and more...
XX, No. 6
June, 1999
Time to Buy in South
Africa? Probably - I've stayed away from recommending the South
African gold stocks for years. Unlike a well managed industrial
company, they can't be expected to grow into an inflated price.
They're meant to be traded, not held as heirlooms. With that introduction,
I'm initiating coverage on two South Africans...
Freeport's Preferreds
- The Freeport group has been followed here for over a decade. I
generally stay away from majors in the mining business because they
tend to be bureaucratically managed, wasteful and dumb; they should
be viewed mainly as sector plays. Freeport is an exception.
Parents as Pushers -
Why has there been a spate of killings in US schools over the past
few years? Without doubt part of the answer lies in the sorry condition
of government education generally. But I suspect it's more than
just bad schools. And has next to nothing to do with guns, the Net
or video games. There's plenty of reason to believe drugs are to
blame. But not relatively benign illegal substances like marijuana.
I'm talking about the extremely popular, and potentially very dangerous
class of psychiatric drugs called Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors.
Reemphasis: Three Recommendations
- Starnet, Black Sea Energy and Indochina Gold are my "big bets."
Notes - War in Kosovo,
Email, resource stocks, gold, and more...
XX, No. 5
May, 1999
Bottom of the Barrel
Stock Markets - Since the collapse in the Orient, followed by that
in Russia, there's been very little interest in Third World exchanges.
A look at Ghana, Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe and others.
The Markets/Open Positions
- Semi annual market check up and portfolio update.
A Lesson in High Tech
- Pulpless publishing, the Internet and the future.
"Stock Prices Are Still
Far Too Low" - The title is in quotes because it's not mine, but
a quote from an article in the March 17 Wall Street Journal editorial
page. I believe the article will be famous one day, although not
for the reasons the authors would like. It pays to be brave when
others are afraid and afraid when others are brave. Based on almost
everything I read and see, everyone today is absolutely fearless.
XX, No. 4
April, 1999
A Business Idea - Even
today, most people in the third world have never made a telephone
call. The main reason for that are high cost and the simple absence
of telephones. The business idea I like is based on what is known
as a "callback" service.
A Rogue Elephant in Your
House - While I was in Burma last month, I spent a couple of days
riding around the forest on elephant back. Elephants are a fine
thing to have in the forest but, believe it or not, you have one
living in your house with you. The elephant in the room, of course,
is the government.
Singapore - I now put
Singapore ahead of Hong Kong as a place to live and work in the
Orient, and one of the best places in the world. Put Singapore in
your travel plans.
Rio Narcea - Despite
the fact it's currently profitable, has big reserves, lots of room
for expansion, and gets favorable tax treatment from the Spanish
government, Rio Narcea's shares have been hammered about as badly
as any other junior gold in the market.
Notes - The Matrix, moral
insanity, The Nine Principles of War, Kosovo, and more...
XX, No. 3
March, 1999
The Junior Gold Review
- Semi annual review of all junior golds in the portfolio: producing,
developmental, exploration and silver companies.
Net Redux - The recent
action of not just Internet stocks, but stocks that sound like they
might be, serves as a double tip-off to the nature of the current
mania.
Just What We Need - Another
War - Clinton's adventure in Kosovo is potentially even more stupid
and dangerous than his attacks on Iraq, Sudan, and Afghanistan.
Notes - The Canadian
Venture Exchange, IMF gold, Jim Blanchard, Kap Resources, gold &
silver coins, Harleys, Y2K, and more...
XX, No. 2
February, 1999
Cuba - I just returned
from my fourth trip to Cuba, and the changes over the past five
years - or even since my last visit - were great. It used to be
there were no restaurants, no shops, no cars and few hotels. Five
years ago, people were malnourished, and even at a couple of official
receptions the staples were olives and Spam, because that was what
they were able to barter for.
Leisure Canada - The
world's only publicly traded play on Cuban tourism and property.
Gold Convertibles - As
long time subscribers know, I'm a big fan of convertible bonds and
preferred stocks. I'm very inclined toward resource convertibles
right now...
Notes - Big tobacco goes
belly up.
XX, No. 1
January, 1999
An Internet Stock - The
current mania for Internet stocks is not, of course, anything new.
Compared to the mania in other areas of the Internet, however, the
prices of Internet gambling stocks have gone nowhere. Starnet has
three divisions that currently generate revenue...
Notes - Famous last words,
the US military, The Paper Trip, dubious wealth, Pinochet, Maggie
Thatcher, and more...
