2000
XXI, No. 12 -
December,
2000
The Election - Algore,
the feckless fratboy edged out by Babybush the evil robot. But who
cares, as the ship of state sails on regardless. An election roundup
guaranteed to challenge your assumptions of modern American politics.
The Stock Market: Look
Out Below - The bear market is shaping up to be especially gruesome,
as evidenced by the story of P.K., from the Motley Fool. How ugly
will it get?
The Markets/Open Positions
- Semi annual market check up and portfolio update.
XXI, No. 11
November, 2000
Two Dollars - The US dollar,
king of all paper currencies, is ripe for a fall. Meanwhile, the Kiwi
dollar, currently the world's weakest currency, may be one of the
best bets around.
Three Paths Up the Mountain
- Three stories, about three different characters, which may change
the way you view life, not just your portfolio.
Elian and the "Rule of
Law" - Janet "The Mako of Waco" Reno's latest raid only further illustrated
what most sensible people already knew.
The Cole - What went wrong
when the USS Cole was blown up, and why was the ship in Aden for refueling,
when intelligence reports indicated terrorist activities in the area?
Madeleine Halfbright and the usual suspects have all the wrong answers.
Notes - The strange legacy
of British royals...
XXI, No. 10
October, 2000
Farallon Resources - a
potential 20 bagger, with a 29 million tonne polymetallic resource
in Guererro, Mexico.
Algore Vs. Baby Bush: A
Battle of the Dynastic Dwarves - It's true there have been American
political dynasties in the past, like the Adams and the Roosevelts.
But the tradition is becoming both entrenched and fashionable. Making
the best of a lose-lose situation.
The Aspen Idea - Aspen,
Colorado as a template for the future direction of property markets
around the world. But where, you might ask, is the next Aspen?
Aura Systems - Could Aura
be a better speculation now than when it was originally recommended
here? It's certainly worth a punt.
Notes - Carl Banks, Congressional
largesse, the U.N., Olympics, Inco and movie reviews on The Patriot
and Gladiator.
XXI, No. 9
September, 2000
Value vs. Momentum - There
are two types of stock market player: Value and Momentum. You might
think these two styles are equally valid, but they're not.
Tech Stocks As Burning
Matches - The similarities between tech stocks (especially Internet
stocks) and junior mining stocks are worth exploration. Indeed, this
mania will end the same way all manias end, with a catastrophic bust.
Some Net Stocks - A short
list of Internet stocks destined for failure.
Notes - The CIA invests
in high-tech, counter-productive technology, and more.
XXI, No. 8
August, 2000
A Tale of the South Pacific
- Set in Vanuatu, this story has it all: sea slugs, cannibalism, copra
plantations, nakamals and, of course, real estate. The chances of
a Galt's Gulch happening are much higher in the South Pacific than
they are in the United States.
Out of the Room... - It's
an old saying in the venture capital business: "out of the room, out
of the deal." A new resource partnership, established by Rick Rule,
will be active in four areas: shell construction, seed stage investment,
secondary market private finance and bridge lending.
Cameco: One-Stop Shopping
for Uranium and Gold - Notwithstanding the hysteria surrounding the
issue, nuclear power still supplies approximately 17% of the world's
electrical power. Cameco has the upside potential of a penny stock,
but with very low risk.
XXI, No. 6/7
June/July, 2000
Romania, or: Count Dracula
- Should I Know Him? Is He a Folk Singer? - The country is off the
beaten path, one reason why it's so cheap and presents real opportunity.
The opportunity in this place is comparable to that in Spain after
Franco or Portugal after its African colonies devolved and it had
a revolution.
Gabriel Resources (GBU)
- Gabriel controls one of the largest and lowest cost gold resourced
in the world that's not yet in the hands of a major. My guess is that,
even with today's gold prices, you'll see it taken over at anywhere
from C$5 to C$10 within the next year.
The Junior Gold Review
- Semi annual review of all junior golds in the portfolio: producing,
developmental, exploration and silver companies.
The "Road Ahead" Is Rocky
- The Microsoft Antitrust suit is unlikely to have a happy ending.
A few ideas for Gates and company.
Notes - Edward Gibbon,
William Simon, Peter McWilliams and more...
XXI, No. 5
May, 2000
South Africa - Everything
in South Africa is cheap right now, and even though a meal will cost
you about a third of what you'd pay for the same thing in the US,
beachfront property is proportionately cheaper yet. More like 5-10%
of its US equivalent.
Crew Development: A Junior
With Prospects of Becoming A Major - After a brief overview of its
properties, it became clear that Crew was an anomaly in many ways:
Both high potential and low risk. An asset play and a growth play.
Notes - Gnutella, Margarita
Sports Book, Life Extension Foundation, Black Sea Energy...
XXI, No. 4
April, 2000
The Internet and the Beginning
of the End of the Mania - The cycle of the market goes from caution
to optimism to enthusiasm to mania on the upside. Then, after the
mania breaks, comes uncertainty, disbelief, fear and then panic on
the downside. I think we're now at the uncertainty stage.
The Markets/Open Positions
- Semi annual market check up and portfolio update.
Notes - Atlanta Investment
Conference tapes
XXI, No. 3
March, 2000
Why Is the Market So Volatile?
- Broadly speaking, two kinds of stocks have done well in the last
18 months: Big companies that the institutions feel obligated to own,
and New Era stuff that sells for a vast multiple of revenues. When
the public gets into the market, two things happen. One, it goes way
up. Two, it becomes much more volatile, disjointed, inefficient and
dangerous than usual.
Chartwell Technology's
Gambling Software - Chartwell Technology (CWH.V) is in an industry,
Internet gambling, that I think has a life of its own. The industry
is now doing a billion dollars a year and is clearly headed to $3
billion, or more, in two years.
Reserve Royalty - Reserve
Royalty is a speculation on the restructuring & liquidation of
a publicly traded Canadian oil and gas royalty company. This is a
deal with limited upside, true, but there's no real downside, and
50% in three months is something I wish I could get every three months.
Officer Krumpky Where Are
You? - It seems the mantras "Cops Are Our Friends" and "Support Your
Police" are now as accepted as Mother and Apple Pie in America. Lately,
the trend has been an increasing militarization of the police force.
As a result, most cops aren't on the beat to serve and protect, but
to destroy the enemy.
Notes - Reviews of Bringing
Out the Dead and Sleepy Hollow, Klinton's State of the Union address,
Russia ponders a nuclear strike on the US, the dreaded Census, and
more...
XXI, No. 2
February, 2000
Cuba - Cuba evidences more
changes every time I visit. What impressed me most this time was the
amount of new construction. When the US drops its insane embargo,
the place will be totally overrun with Americans just because it's
been forbidden fruit for so long.
Another Cuban Opportunity
- I'm a believer in Cuba...on my last trip there, early in February,
I looked into Commercial Consolidators (CCZ.V). To my knowledge it's
the only small public company (besides Leisure Canada) that's specializing
in exploiting this country's market.
Politician/War Hero? -
Saying unkind things about popular icons both here in the letter and
in speeches sometimes makes me feel churlish. But not saying something
would be worse. Now comes one John McCain, a senator from Arizona.
Like most Republicans, he doesn't appear to have any core beliefs
other than that the Democrats are moving too quickly in transforming
the United States into a fascistic welfare state.
Notes - Inland Entertainment
gains 500%, trading commodities, Dogma, the movie, Palm Beach fund
raisers, Nicaragua and more...
XXI, No. 1
January, 2000
Mining in China - I'm convinced
that China, recently one of the more difficult places in the world
to work, has become one of the best to go mining. One critically important
change in China has been a complete revamping of the mining law, as
of February 1998.
Minco - Minco (MMM.T) has
been on the buy list for a long time, but I've never gotten around
to telling its story in any detail until now. This company pretty
much has it all, except for a high market cap...
The Junior Gold Review
- Semi annual review of all junior golds in the portfolio: producing,
developmental, exploration and silver companies.
Ivanhoe Energy - One of
the recent big hits for this letter has been Ivanhoe Energy (IE.T),
first appearing here in September 1998 at C$0.39 and had a spectacular
run to a high of C$4.90 in August '99. Ivanhoe may be cheaper now
than it was at C$0.39 and has an excellent chance of being a long
ball home run over the next year.
Non-Resource Recap - Updates
on Starnet, Dragon Pharmaceuticals and Telefficiency.
Notes - The WTO riots in
Seattle, cell phones in Hong Kong, International Man, New Zealand,
Mandarin Chinese, commercial art, Vengold and more...
