2002
XXIII No.12, December 2002
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The US is facing a real deflationary threat, and the
Fed's resolve to do whatever it takes is putting pressure on the
dollar. The drop in the dollar has led to an 8% increase in gold
since Dec. 2. I don't know high this rally will go, but if you don't
already own gold and gold stocks I suggest you not wait too long.
Next month's issue will take an in-depth look at the gold market.
The stock market has rebounded somewhat from the lows it hit in
October. Neither I nor anyone else knows what's going to happen
next. But, after two and a half nasty down years, with the Nasdaq
off 70%+ from its March 2000 peak, I wouldn't be at all surprised
to see it go higher still. Much the same thing happened in 1930.
Nothing goes straight up or down. But I believe the long term trend
remains down.
It's a good timebecause of gold, if not stocksto look at a new
junior, Gammon Lake. The analysis is by Paul Van Eeden; I'm in complete
agreement.
This last year has been a good one; I believe 2003 will be extraordinarily
profitable for the situations you'll find here.
XXIII No.11, November 2002
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This issue is devoted almost entirely to Mongolia,
a country which is pretty much off the world's radar screen. I'll
leave it to you to decide whether that should be the case. And Ivanhoe
Mining, a company whose fateat least at the momentis pretty much
tied to the results it's getting there. Ivanhoe is one of the most
widely owned juniors, with a fairly large market cap. Again, I'm
forced to leave it to you whether this is justified.
Undoubtedly, most readers are looking for definitive advice, delivered
with an air of ex cathedra certainty. Unfortunately, that's not
what this letter is about.
To make up for it, though, I've decided at long last to respond
to a question many subscribers have asked me over the years, about
(probably) the most famous person in the mining business: Robert
Friedland.
XXIII No.10, October 2002
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This month is devoted almost entirely to a review
of mining stocks, including contributions from Paul van Eeden. I
know some of you take IS primarily for the exotica and the snappy
patter, and have only a minimal interest in mining; so this concentration
may disappoint you somewhat. But most of the discussion is about
the majors, which you can buy and hold for the next few years. And
I think get several hundred percent on your money in the process.
That's going to look pretty good while most people experience a
continuing financial meltdown. Trust me on this one. It's time to
buy gold, silver, and the stocks that mine themin size.
I'm on my way to Australia as you read this; the article on Mongolia
will appear next month. There will be something for everyone in
that issue.
And the next issue will arrive in your mailbox in plenty of time
for the Holiday Season, which is, I suppose, the politically correct
way of saying Christmas/Hanukah/Winter Solstice. Happy Thanksgiving
to American subscribers in the meantime.
XXIII No.9, September 2002
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McPaper On Investing—I’ve sometimes been
accused of being easily amused, but that has never extended to actually
buying a copy of USA Today, unquestionably the worst paper in existence,
with the possible exception of the Weekly World News that you’ll
find near your grocer’s checkout counter. But, momentarily
at loose ends in an airport lounge, I picked up the October 4 edition
of McPaper, which contained their 3rd quarter stock mutual fund
report.
Gold—I was reading over an article in Forbes,
dated 30 July. I’m often months behind on periodicals, as
much by intention as happenstance. The reason for that is twofold:
First, I can see, with 20-20 hindsight, what information is worth
knowing and what isn’t, so I save a lot of time reading. Second,
it gives me perspective on the value of various people’s opinions;
I don’t have to guess how much of what they thought was right
or wrong.
Considering Thailand—I forgot to mention an
interesting piece of data in my brief discussion in IS XXIII/6 of
separatist activity in southern Thailand. Assassins of police are
paid up to F50,000 (US$1,200) for each cop they take out, an indication
of how far the dollar goes in some places.
Further Thoughts on the Forever War—I hope I’m
totally wrong on this, but I’ve got a feeling what’s
brewing is the biggest thing since at least WWII. The historical
clock looks to me like it’s at about 1936.
Notes—Bush’s room temperature IQ, Life
Enhancement, Lessons from Tyco, Envy and Hysteria, Paul van Eeden,
and more…
XXIII No.8, August 2002
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The Forever War, Chapter Next—It would certainly
appear the Baby Bush, and his axis of evil advisors, are about to
do Iraq. No so long ago, Iraq was our steadfast ally and client
state in the Middle East—and a country that, I’d guess,
90% of Americans never even knew existed before its invasion of
Kuwait. My further guess is that 50% of Americans can’t even
find it on a globe without substantial looking. But then, was has
long been nature’s way of teaching Americans geography.
Financial Consequences—I see this war as reinforcing
and accelerating, not changing, trends already underway. Here’s
the bottom line…
Notes—Precious metals, al Queda gold, Airline
security, US moral legitimacy and more…
XXIII No.7, July 2002
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A View on the Greater Depression—In the markets,
timing is everything. Now comes Robert Prechter with his latest
book, Conquer The Crash. I’m going to use the book as something
of a framework to discuss what’s likely to occur in the next
few years, because I agree with almost everything Prechter says.
If you want the bottom line now, it’s that you should buy
and read the book.
Junior Gold Review—Now-quarterly review of all
junior golds in the portfolio: producing, developmental, exploration
and silver companies.
Notes—The Oklahoma Bombing Investigation Committee,
Busharraf, The Atocha, Tyco and more…
XXIII No.6
- June
2002
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Argentina-Because of its size, geography and large
European population, Argentina might have evolved the way the US
did. And it comes closer than any other country in Latin America.
But there were critical differences.
Notes-Goma City, NZ and the Forever War, Black Church
Arson?, The US$, The Pledge of Allegiance, and more…
XXIII No.5 - May
2002
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Gold-Let me be as clear as possible about this. Any
of the false starts in gold over the past two years could have led
to the start of a real bull market; I treated them as such and bought
more. But things actually are off and running now. This bull market
has just begun. To pull a number out of a hat, $1,000 gold seems
reasonable; $3,000 easily possible.
A Few More Junior Golds-These stocks could be among
the leaders in at least the early stages of the market, simply because
they have known resources. Some of them, you'll note, have already
been featured here.
Notes-The Casey Investment Alert, A Free 1-yr Subscription
to Perspectives, Enron a Bull Market Phenomenon, Corporate Salaries,
New Zealand, Income Taxes, and more…
XXIII No.4 - April
2002
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Israel-I visited Israel in early December, at the
beginning of Ramadan, and in the midst of the latest Intifada. As
you can imagine, there were no tourists to speak of; there are probably
even fewer now, as things have heated up further. The five star
hotel I stayed at in Jerusalem had perhaps 10% occupancy. The best
places to travel for pleasure-and absolutely for business-are the
very places the media and the State Department tell you to stay
away from. It's tough, and usually foolhardy, to generalize about
any group. But let's try.
Notes-Movie Review: Training Day, The Axis of Evil,
IS Queenstown Seminar, and more…
XXIII No.3 - March
2002
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Junior Gold Review-Now-quarterly review of all junior
golds in the portfolio: producing, developmental, exploration and
silver companies.
Notes-The Forever War and Muslim Values, Slobo on
Trial, John Walker, and more…
XXIII No.2 - February 2002
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Turkey-On this trip I drove close to 2,000 km throughout
central and eastern Turkey, going as far as the Euphrates River
on the Iraqi border, looking at six properties of Anatolia Minerals,
and two of Eldorado Gold.
Thoughts on Exploration, Economics and a Looming Metals
Shortage-Over the last year or so, I've enlisted my friend Brent
Cook, from time to time, to say a few words on the mining business;
he's been an active field geologist for over 25 years. We've been
to numerous projects together all over the world and there's not
much we disagree about besides what wine to order with dinner. The
bottom line here is that, as bad as the mining business has been,
that has to change. According to Brent, here's part of why it's
such a notoriously cyclical business.
Eldorado-Eldorado Gold was formed in 1993 by some
of the same guys who started Bema Gold. They acquired properties
in Mexico and Brazil and quickly placed them in successful production.
Their philosophy is to grow into a mid-tier producer. The good news
is that ELD has shown the competence not only toexplore, but mine.
Anatolia Minerals-Anatolia Minerals' Turkish subsidiary
was organized in early 1996, and has since come to control more
than 10 major project areas covering 3.5 million acres throughout
Turkey. In my view, recognizing it's still early days in the exploration/development
curve, any one of them has the potential to be a company maker.
XXIII
No.1 - January 2002
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Vannessa Supplement
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Vannessa Supplement
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Vannessa Ventures: A Junior with 20 Million Ounces?-Vannessa
Ventures has the potential to be a 10 to 1 shot, or even better,
over the next few years.
Follow-up on the Meaning of Life-Shop Ebay for a wife?
